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Five predictions for 2009 - bring in the clowns

Given that we're almost halfwhere through 2009, it's a bit late for our predictions for this year.

But I don't want to be a bad sport, standing at the sidelines when everybody else makes predictions, so here goes:

A nice little bubble in renewable energy:
We like renewable energy. I mean, who doesn't? But in Europe at least, it's a sector hugely dependant on public money. And as both the US and Europe are bound to pump money in all kind of economic relaunch schemes with renewable energy as the poster child, there'll be so much liquidity around for so few good companies that a new big bubble is almost inevitable. And as the banks & hedge funds have fired legions of MBA's, we're not short of business plans either. Let the good times roll!
A rude awakening for social media (and their consultants):
Let's face it. Twitter, Facebook and so on aren't making any real money. Or at least not the kind of money to justify their valuations. And what comes around, goes around.
Either they're cash in quickly (and sell out to the big guys) or they're going to have tough questions from their financers. Because see prediction 1, renewables will be able to get away with murder. Anything else that loses money, won't.
And for social media consultants, advising companies on how to approach their consumers on social media, we might just conclude that people do not want to be approached. Maybe it's time to go into renewables, or learn Chinese (see prediction 3).
China will keep on booming - or things will go boom boom over there:
I could have put this one at number one, as the economic boom and re-opening of China is probably the biggest story after the end of the Cold War (and Paris Hilton, but I disgress). But there's bound to be a lot of unrest in the Chinese heartland if the new wealth of the Chinese coastal towns won't trickle down. A billion angry people is not a comforting thought. So let's just hope the boom continues, or we're in shit.
We will grow sick of all the bad news:
Maybe I'm just projecting, but I've had my fair share of gloom & doom news. I've already some money on the table that newspapers & media will just simply call the whole credit crunch thing off in three months time. Good riddance as far as I'm concerned. Let's all just focus on now cool Obama is, how stupid Wayne Rooney is, what a slut Paris Hilton is or just like, you know, something.
We'll bring in the clowns.
Building on prediction 4, we'll just adore anyone who can simply entertain us. Just as Hollywood knew it's glory time after WWII or jazz was big in the Depression, we'll be dying for a good laugh, a romantic story, a bit of dancing and so on. Big plasma TV's, cinema's, booze, drugs, clubs, entertainment parcs, websites with puppies & babies and an army of A & B celebrities are in for a killer year. Politicians will try to make us laugh (good hopes on Berlusconi & Sarkozy for some good pranks). Companies will
fall over each other with feel-good stories. I say, bring it on!

(6. Banking will recover more quickly than you'll think - thanks to all governments printing money)

(7. Inflation will hit the roof 2 or 3 years from now, see prediction 6)

(8. There won't be a solution for the Israel/Palestinian problem this year)

(9. Axl Rose will run for governor of Calfornia. China will be pissed off. Nobody else will care.
eBay's Meg Whitman will also run, but that's a shooting fish in barrels prediction.)

(10. activation.introniche.com will kick ass and transform marketing as we know it.
As hairy an idea as Axl Rose, but just as comforting an idea...)

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samfromintroniche — January 17, 2009 - 18:11

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